For Fulham, saturday's result was bittersweet. On balance, a struggling side earning an away point against a club with European aspirations has to be viewed as a success. However, a team still five points from safety with now only nine matches to play needs points in bunches of threes. Fulham now rests at twenty points. Over the past five years, 35 has been the average total required to remain safe. The math is simple: fifteen points in nine matches. How our beloved Cottagers get there is far more complex.
As I stated above, to reach safety, wins are needed, at least four of them down the stretch. Four wins, three ties, and two defeats seems the most likely scenario that will bring an 8th straight year of premier league football to Craven Cottage. Will our current style of play lead to those results?
From this fan's eyes, Fulham looks to be trying to play every team close. Our current 4-5-1 formation is designed to control play in the midfield, slow the game down, and limit the amount of scoring chances in a given game. While this is not an inherently bad strategy or formation, less scoring chances equal more draws. I have thought and thought and thought about what exactly Hodgson envisions happening down the stretch that will keep us up. I have come up with three ideas.
1. "35 points has been the average number to safety, but this year that many will not be necessary." I doubt this is really what he is thinking. I through it in because it has actually crossed my mind. One does have to wonder if he realizes just how many wins are required over the final two months to stay up.
2. "Given the talent available, the only way this club can grab 15 points is by keeping all the remaining games close and hoping to get some breaks." In sport, in life, one makes his own breaks. Again, I hope this is not the thought process; however, I do think it is possible. Trying to play nine games tight and asking for a third of them to end in draws, a third in wins, and a third in losses is probably reasonable. But we need more than that.
3. "There are a lot of new faces on this squad. We have been trying to play games close while we get to know each other. Starting with Everton at home on Sunday, we will start going after goals and victories." Hopefully, this has been Hodgson's plan all along. Though there were some winnable games the past months, the upcoming stretch of Newcastle, Derby, Sunderland, and Reading is when Fulham desperately needs to start clicking. Perhaps, then we will see a more attacking side in the first minute with the score 0-0 rather than in the 80 minute down 1-0.
I had planned on discussing the actual match a bit tonight, but that will have to wait for tomorrow. I would love to read some comments below if you though this, my first ever blog entry, was interesting, boring, insightful, off the mark, etc.
1 comment:
There appear to be three different leagues going on within the Premiership - the perennial top four of Arsenal, ManU, Chelsea and Liverpool; middle of the road teams; and those fighting for mere survival.
Therefore, it is not surprising to see a relegation-threatened team playing it safe. They scrap for points against teams with much more money for illustrius tranfers - often playing it super-safe - and then they try to nick games against more moderate opposition.
I would agree they need a more attacking approach against teams lower down the league. At least 4-5-1 can rapidly become 4-3-3 when they win the ball and attack.
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